The CUD Crisis: Authoritarian Tendencies and the Emerging Dominance of Moderate Wing - By Siddise Abbamagal *

By Siddise Abbamagal *

Origin of the Crisis: Institutional Weakness

It was during the run-up-to the 2005 election that a new opposition force emerged in the field of Ethiopian national politics. Four pre-existing political parties with little ideological and tactical differences formed the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD, commonly known as (Kinjit). It was a timely and necessary progress made by the leadership of the four parties, because only a united and strong opposition could challenge the hegemony of the ruling party. However the regime underestimated this new force as organizationally amateur and structurally loose. The ruling party also grossly misunderstood the level of dissatisfaction and disapproval of the Ethiopian people against the incumbent party that has dragged the nation without any real democratic and economic progress. Therefore, the regime allowed the CUD to freely campaign using all available media including those that are controlled by the state.

The government failed to understand that this new party was not so new after all. First, almost all of the four parties of the coalition were in existence for years, some for decades, studying and understanding the weakest links of the ruling party. The personalities elected to lead the new coalition were part and parcel of the ruling elite of Ethiopian politics for quite long time that they do have a pretty well established network both within Ethiopia ( at least in urban areas) and the Diaspora. This extended network provided the coalition with readily available resource to combat the state -financed incumbent party.

Prime minister Meles Zenawi, praised to be the shrewdest statesmen of today's Africa, was so wrong that he didn't realize the treat the new force posed until just a week prior to the election when nearly 2 million people rallied in support of the opposition groups as opposed to less than 100,000 in favor of the incumbents. It was this time Mr Zenawi realized what a grave miscalculation he had made in an effort to mislead his Western friends into thinking that Ethiopia was in a real democratic transition. He allowed the opposition to campaign so freely not because he believed in democracy but because he underestimated their potential. This was very obvious from his decision to send his illiterate and inarticulate ministers to debate the well educated, highly proficient opposition leaders with a extensive experience in the international and national politics. It was too late to turn things around when Mr. Zenawi realize the magnitude of the trouble he was facing, therefore he had no chance but to reveal his real identity- ruthless dictator, declaring state of emergence and gunning down innocent civilians on daylight. Of course, incarcerating the opposition leader he grossly underestimated once upon a time.

The Fragmentation and Disintegration of the "Kinijit Spirit"

As discussed above, the incumbent party underestimated the strength of the CUD; in contrast, the CUD leadership and its supporter wrongly overestimate their party. Although CUD was formed from older organizations and led by experienced leadership, the party's internal network was far from integrating and organizational stability. The formation of the coalition was made in rush and simply based on "anti-Woyane" sentiment as a unifying and bonding factor. In any organization there are two major components that determine its strength; efficiency and sustainability. These are determined by the organizations' institution and its agents. Although the CUD has quite determined and experienced agents (leaders, members and supporters) they were not able to create solidified and cohesive institution. Because the organization faced up battle against the regime before sorting out its internal issues, problems emerged in an uncontrollable speed. Had there been a strong institution, any weakness could have been resolved or controlled before causing too much damage.

Unfortunately the CUD did not have such sustainable and strong institution; hence the fragmentation of the party was very quick after the election. Few weeks after the election, difference emerged between the chairman of the party and one of the most active members of the leadership, Lidetu Ayalew. It was then when the party exposed its internal weakness by suspending Lidetu instead of containing the issue and solving their difference in a democratic manner. This miscalculated decision and the anti-Lidetu propaganda opened a crack wide enough to consume the party itself. All divisions and infighting that took place after that can all be attributed to what followed afterwards

Authoritarianism, Power Struggle and Preemptive Attack

It is no secret that the CUD is now divided into at least five different factions both in Ethiopia and here in Diaspora. The journey of division and formation of faction started early on with Lidetu, followed by those CUD members who joined the parliament. Then the crack moved across the ocean and the Diaspora support groups broke apart into two factions, namely the Kinjit International Leadership (KIL) and Kinjit International Council (KIC), the former masterminded by Brehane Mewa and Andargachew Tsige, while the later is led by Major Yosef Yazew. The factions in Ethiopia have been fighting at the government court begging Mr. Zenawi to mediate among them! The KIL and KIC waged virtual fighting over the internet and at America courts. It was in the middle of this mess the jailed leaders received a "pardon" from their incarcerator. All eyes and ears turned on them either in the hope of reconciling the fighting factions and unifying the party or to win them over to one faction or another. However, soon it was revealed that the released leaders were divided into at least two factions, already while in prison and joined the existing factions. While the chairman of the organization, Hailu Shawul joined the KIC of Shaleka, the rest of the leadership, masterminded by Brehanu Nega joined the KIL of Mr. Tsige. What a disappointing development for any CUD supporter!

Hailu Shawul: A Dictator or a Messiah?

Supporters of Mr. Shawul praise him for "single-handedly" making the CUD what it is today. Furthermore, they give him credit for his unwavering stand against Woyane and for Ethiopian unity. These supporters of Mr.Shawul accuse his adversaries as sellouts and for betraying the commander-in-chief. In contrast opponents of Mr. Shawul, starting with Lidetu, accuse him for being a ruthless dictator with inefficient leadership skills and blind personal ego.

In these writers view, Mr. Shawul's stand on Ethiopian "unity" and his patriotism is  unquestionable. His contribution to the formation of CUD is also a proven fact. Mr. Hailu was a very valuable member of the leadership especially because of his personal wealth which he contribute to strengthen the party, as well as wooing his connections to support that party. But Mr. Shawul's credentials as a unifying and democratic leader are proven to be exaggerations to say the least. Records show that Mr. Shawul is a person who is responsible for distraction of CUD and formation of so many factions.

To support this argument, it is necessary to assess some of the characteristics of Mr. Shawul based on decisions he has been making that shows his dictatorial tendencies. Leaving alone the pre- and post-election decision he made, if one only focuses on the current development, it is crystal clear that Mr. Shawul is  a person who doesn't believe in majority rule unless what he believes and proposes is accepted. Immediately after they were released from prison, it has been reported that the CUD leaders voted to disband the international leadership that was formed to fill the leadership vacuum. However Mr. Hailu authorized to the faction favoring him, KIC (which also originally established by his sole direct authorization) , to remain active. In a similar fashion, when the proposal for foreign trip by CUD leaders came to the floor for voting, all but Mr.  Shawul voted in favor of it. He proposed that the visit should be postponed for one month with an excuse of securing the release of the remaining prisoners.  Not surprisingly, the idea was voted down but he rejected the verdict. The man who promised that he would not leave the country till each and every prisoner would be released arrived in the US within a week after the rest of the leaders arrived.  No matter what his reason for not coming early might be, it is obvious that if a person is rejecting the majority rule, then that person is a dictator. In a democratic system, being a president or a chairman cannot give any one the right to dictate the will of the majority.

Mr. Shawuls' supporters justify his latest action by blaming the rest the leadership for breaking the by laws of the party. Apparently, upon leaving the prison, the leaders have decided to exclude those members of the general assembly who were not jailed. Therefore only the jailed leaders were gathered to make decisions. Since the number of the jailed leaders does not fulfill the quorum, Shawul's supporters argue that, any decision passed, including the trip, were unlawful. However Mr. Shawul was one of the major opponents of the idea of including the leaders who were not jailed.  Mind you he has personally expelled Lidetu Ayalew and  Mushe Semu from the party before going to jail. That means Medhin ( Lidetu's party) is not part of the coalition, legally and practically. Thus, since each members of the coalition has 15 members within the CUD general assembly (GA), there are only 45 GA  members left within the coalition. Thus, the presence of 23 members at the meeting does fulfill the quorum needed. But also we need to remember that those elected CUD MPs who joined the parliament in defiance of Mr. Shawul's executive order have been condemned by him and other leaders. Thus, at least another  third of the GA  members are "ineligible" to vote. Adding the number of MPs who left the country and officially disassociated themselves from the party, the remaining eligible voters would be less than half of the total number. Thus, the decision made by the 23 released members, even if it might have evil intention, has fulfilled the legal requirement.  It is also worth noting that Mr. Shawul has been a leader of the hardliners wing pushing for tougher punishment against those who defy the party principles, by joining the parliament. Had things went right, after he was released, confidential sources have informed this writer, that he was planning to officially expel those who joined the parliament.

Birahanu Nega: A Shroud Politician, Moderate Democrat and Power Monger

It is no secret that the brain behind the success of CUD in the 2005 election was none other than Dr Brehanu Nega. A well read, ambitious and an outstanding diplomat, Dr Nega is credited for producing the attractive liberal democratic economic manifesto of the party. He was also the man who managed to broker pretty sweet deals between CUD and the incumbent party, as well as win over the support of foreign powers. He leads the moderate and progressive voice within the party, and with assertive lobbying skills, he was able to alienate the hardliners AEPO leaders. More over, being from the Guarage ethnic groups, his presence was valuable asset for a party highly identified with Amhara hardliners. Of course his presence within the leadership circle had attracted the wealthy minority Gurage to invest millions of dollars in support of the party.

Nevertheless his ambition and overly assertive manner has led to an intensified power struggle between him and the chairman. He was also in quite distractive battle with Lidetu Ayalew, the young, vibrant and eloquent leader. Although Dr Nega and Lidetu shares quite similar views, their conflict emerged while they were crossing each others line while trying to establish their individual dominance within the party. Dr Nega effort to establish a progressive and moderate party had led him to clash with many of the older leaders, including Prof. Woldemariam, Major Admasu and Mr. Shawul. The main source of tension was Dr Nega's emerging influence within the party. His well prepared, persuasive arguments swaying the supporters to his side, added to his reckless liberal attitude of despising the older conservative leaders was becoming a serious threat. Understanding that any head-on-head collusion would destroy his smaller moderate wing, Dr Nega cleverly preferred to play a behind-the-scene game than take up executive positions. In doing so, he bought himself time to sway more members to his side and consolidate substantial influence within the party, to finally unseat the conservative wing.  Thus, there is no doubt that he has successfully accomplished his grand plan of transforming the party to a moderate, modern and progressive voice that is more compatible to current political reality of Ethiopia.

Most CUD members seem to think that the power struggle between Dr Nega and Mr Shawul has just began. The reality is that  the game is almost over. Dr Nega's victory over the conservative chairman is mainly attributed to formers' shrewdness and willingness to listen to different political opinion in the country to position him self with the realm of public opinion. While Mr. Shawul was bogged down on gathering the Diaspora rumors in prison, the savvy academic was interviewing freshly jailed political prisoners who enriched him with the direction the nation and public opinion was heading to. The two men are incomparable both in terms of leadership ability, knowledge of Ethiopian and global politics or communication skills. Dr Nega exploited Mr Shawul's rigid, conservative and unrealistic nature to expose his weakness and finally outmaneuver him.

Lidetu Proven Right! Will He Join Dr Nega's block?

            From the beginning of the crisis, Lidetu accused Mr. Shawul for being power monger, inefficient and a dictator. Lidetu stressed the need for younger leaders to take up the struggle because old and rigid system Mr. Shawul follows was not compatible to the current socio-economic and political environment of the country. As a result he was demoted and suspended from the party. All sort of character assassinations waged against him from all directions, especially from individuals who have taken side with Mr. Shawul now.   Lidetu was especially accused for being a double agent working for the regime. This writer believes that those accusations were inaccurate. Lidetu,  a young and bright politician came to the light of Ethiopian political sphere about a decade and half ago. Long before the formation of CUD he was one of the 12 opposition members in the parliament. By the time when any means of peaceful political opposition was doomed impossible, he was at the forefront exposing the misdeeds of the ruling party. Fresh from college, he understood the emerging student political activism and tactfully encouraged the students to strike in 2001. When the government put him in Shawa Robit prison for three month, he came out as a determined hero of the crisis. After joining the CUD as a secretary general, his contribution popularizing the party among the town youth was formidable. He represented the CUD at many of the nationally televised debates where he tore apart the unqualified, uninformed EPRDF ministers such as Genet Zewude, Abadula and Tefera Walwa. One poll conducted by an independent newspaper gave 42% approval rating to Lidetu among 9 people who participated. In general there was no opposition leader as eloquent, well informed and excellent speaker as Lidetu was during the 2005 election debates.

          However his fallout with Brehanu Nega and Hailu Shawul pushed him out of the party, where the chairman authorized collecting signatures from Lidetu's constituency for his recall and expulsion of him from the party. This action of the chairman and the followed character assassination, threatening attempts on his life led the young politician to seek refuge at his former foe- the ruling party and finally separate his party from the coalition. As mentioned above Lidetu's suspension opened a crack within the young coalition, allowing the ruling party to tear it apart. This writer believes that it was weak leadership ability and authoritarian behaviors of the chairman that lead to such demise of the party. By expelling such a resourceful leader, CUD made a critical, unwise organizational mistake that would hunt them for years to come.

Birtukan Midegsa at the Cross Road

Some people end up suffering by being at wrong place, at the wrong time. That is how I see the situation the young Judge Birtukan Mideksa found herself in. Right after the 2005 election, the government embarked on accusing the CUD of being led by Amhara supremacists and Dergue remnants. While the accusation about their ties to the Dergue did not affect public opinion, the identification of CUD  as a reincarnate of AAPO has damaged the organizations potential for wider acceptance. Therefore, CUD took a decisive face-saving project by appointing Britukan Mideksa , an "Oromo"  as  first-chairwoman of the party and promoting some other non-Amahara members. Until after the election, Birtukan was not in the executive committee let alone inline to become the second in command. The face-saving decision was simply a disingenuous attempt to gain the support of the untapped Oromo support that was proven critical during the post election crisis. It is to be remembered that both CUD and EPRDF were in a hot pursuit of Oromo support, the later even going as far as reversing its unpopular move to relocate Oromia's capital city from Finfinne (Shaggar) to Adama.

Ms. Midksa, a moderate , humanist, less experienced and with naïve political outlook became a natural ally of Dr Nega, who successfully exploited her appeal as an educated woman to outmaneuver Mr. Shawul. Besides breaking ties with the ruling party by ruling for the release of the Prime Minister 's number one enemy, Siye Abreha, from prison, she was also an active participant of the Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association, one of the strongest civic organizations in the nation. However in a nation where the Oromos are leading an exclusive political movement, joining a party that is yet to clearly formulate its policy towards Oromo question will make her position difficult. She will be a minority voice both in CUD, a party that has hardly any membership from Oromo ethnic group. Similarly, although CUD hopes to gain the Oromo support by displaying Ms. Mideksa, Oromos who share her views are very tinny minority among the 40 million Oromos whom over 15 million are potential voters.

    Any how, for the time being it seems Ms Mideksa has become the central figure in this saga. Although she has aligned herself with Brehanu's block, the rather ruthless faction of Mr. Shawul has stayed away from attacking Ms Mideksa. In addition, Prof Woldemarim who is accredited for being independent of the two factions has fully endorsed the young lawyer to become the leader of the party. This might give her chance to consolidate her grip in power for now, but her future is uncertain.

Conclusion

        The crisis in within the CUD is the hottest political flavor of the season. Although the party might overcome the numerous difficulties it is facing, the nature and composition of the party will very much be different than the CUD we saw during the 2005 election. The conservative wing within the party is successfully defeated and the chairman's reputation is damaged beyond repair. The emergence of the moderate-progressive block as a dominant faction within CUD is not an isolated incident, but rather phenomena that have been observed within other political parties as well. Any sober observation of the Ethiopian political direction leads one to conclude that moderate and liberal wings within all political parties and factions are becoming the dominant force. The public opinion is giving much acceptance for those who have progressive views. In the past, hardliners, extremists and conservatives have been the driving force of the public opinion. But in the recent decade or so, the public has been throwing its support behind the reconciliatory and moderate factions.  In an upcoming article, I will try to show how perspective constituencies of TPLF, OLF and CUD had thrown their support behind the moderate wings of each party..

• The writer is a Public Policy student living in North America. She can be reached at sabagalo@gmail.com

Note: The writer is neither a member nor a supporter of CUD. This article is based on her personal observation of the regional politics for the past decade or so. While working as intern for one of the 2005 election foreign observers, she had an opportunity to discuss some of the issues raised in this essay, with several top CUD leaders, including the personalities mention in this article.